Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-01-18 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 3 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 52.9%

CGY: 47.1%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.17

CGY: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • WPG at home vs CGY: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-15	CGY 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	CGY
2025-10-24	WPG 5 - 3 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-10-20	CGY 1 - 2 WPG	WPG	CGY
2025-01-26	WPG 5 - 2 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-01-18	WPG 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	17	1	1.39
1	CGY	9	0	0.42
2	WPG	20	0	1.28
2	CGY	11	1	0.75
3	WPG	21	0	1.37
3	CGY	8	2	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8