Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-01-18 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 3 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 50.8%

CGY: 49.2%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.42

CGY: 2.53

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Eric Comrie	22	19	3	86.4%	2.11	3	-0.89
CGY	Dustin Wolf	39	38	1	97.4%	4.04	1	3.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs CGY: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-15	CGY 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2025-10-24	WPG 5 - 3 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-10-20	CGY 1 - 2 WPG	WPG	CGY
2025-01-26	WPG 5 - 2 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-01-18	WPG 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	17	1	1.39
1	CGY	9	0	0.42
2	WPG	20	0	1.28
2	CGY	11	1	0.75
3	WPG	21	0	1.37
3	CGY	8	2	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.4 - 2.5