San Jose Sharks at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-01-18 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

NYI: 57.7%

SJS: 42.3%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.60

SJS: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYI

Marcus Hogberg - 0-0-0 | 0.714 SV% | 8.90 GAA

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Marcus Hogberg	19	18	1	94.7%	1.50	1	0.50
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	31	27	4	87.1%	3.55	2	-0.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • NYI at home vs SJS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	SJS 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-10-21	NYI 4 - 3 SJS	NYI	NYI
2025-03-08	SJS 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-01-18	NYI 4 - 1 SJS	NYI	NYI
2024-03-07	SJS 2 - 7 NYI	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	19	0	0.99
1	SJS	7	0	0.13
2	NYI	21	2	2.15
2	SJS	11	1	0.83
3	NYI	13	0	0.41
3	SJS	14	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.6 - 2.6