Vegas Golden Knights at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-01-18 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 5 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 46.4%

VGK: 53.6%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.84

VGK: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Petr Mrazek	35	32	3	91.4%	3.20	0	0.20
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	23	18	5	78.3%	3.08	2	-1.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CHI at home vs VGK: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	VGK 4 - 0 CHI	VGK	VGK
2026-01-04	CHI 3 - 2 VGK	CHI	VGK
2025-12-02	VGK 4 - 3 CHI	VGK	VGK
2025-03-28	CHI 3 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-02-27	VGK 7 - 5 CHI	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	19	2	1.87
1	VGK	12	0	0.74
2	CHI	6	0	0.34
2	VGK	23	0	1.55
3	CHI	8	0	0.87
3	VGK	16	0	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 5 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2