Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-01-18 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 45.1%

EDM: 54.9%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.83

EDM: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 44%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	15	13	2	86.7%	1.50	0	-0.50
EDM	Stuart Skinner	27	24	3	88.9%	2.36	3	-0.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • VAN at home vs EDM: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	EDM 6 - 1 VAN	EDM	EDM
2026-01-17	VAN 0 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-10-26	VAN 4 - 3 EDM	VAN	EDM
2025-10-11	EDM 3 - 1 VAN	EDM	EDM
2025-01-23	EDM 6 - 2 VAN	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	18	2	1.72
1	EDM	13	0	0.62
2	VAN	10	1	0.42
2	EDM	9	0	0.44
3	VAN	8	0	0.23
3	EDM	9	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.4