Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-01-19 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 2 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 50.7%

OTT: 49.3%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.09

OTT: 2.41

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 37%

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	20	18	2	90.0%	2.30	0	0.30
OTT	Anton Forsberg	26	25	1	96.2%	1.94	0	0.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • NJD at home vs OTT: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NJD 4 - 3 OTT	NJD	NJD
2026-01-31	OTT 4 - 1 NJD	OTT	OTT
2025-12-09	OTT 3 - 4 NJD	NJD	OTT
2025-03-22	NJD 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-01-19	NJD 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	NJD	26	1.17
1	OTT	4	0.17
2	NJD	8	0.50
2	OTT	17	1.27
3	NJD	6	0.27
3	OTT	12	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 1 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.1 - 2.4