New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-01-19 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 4 New York Rangers

Win Probability

MTL: 58.7%

NYR: 41.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.32

NYR: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	28	24	4	85.7%	3.44	4	-0.56
NYR	Jonathan Quick	37	32	5	86.5%	4.96	4	-0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • MTL at home vs NYR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NYR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-13	NYR 5 - 4 MTL	NYR	NYR
2025-10-18	MTL 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-01-19	MTL 5 - 4 NYR	MTL	MTL
2024-11-30	NYR 4 - 3 MTL	NYR	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	0	0.86
1	NYR	9	1	0.67
2	MTL	14	1	1.59
2	NYR	21	2	1.58
3	MTL	22	2	2.17
3	NYR	11	0	0.74
4	MTL	3	1	0.34
4	NYR	3	1	0.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 4 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1