San Jose Sharks at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-01-20 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 6 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

BOS: 56.1%

SJS: 43.9%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.77

SJS: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	28	25	3	89.3%	2.74	1	-0.26
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	33	27	6	81.8%	5.44	4	-0.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BOS at home vs SJS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	BOS 2 - 4 SJS	SJS	BOS
2025-11-23	SJS 3 - 1 BOS	SJS	BOS
2025-03-22	SJS 3 - 1 BOS	SJS	SJS
2025-01-20	BOS 6 - 3 SJS	BOS	BOS
2023-11-30	BOS 3 - 0 SJS	BOS	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	17	0	1.43
1	SJS	14	0	0.78
2	BOS	16	1	1.19
2	SJS	22	1	1.27
3	BOS	17	3	2.82
3	SJS	13	0	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 6 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.8 - 2.7