Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-01-20 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 3 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 68.0%

MIN: 32.0%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.73

MIN: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	26	23	3	88.5%	3.21	3	0.21
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	27	26	1	96.3%	2.49	1	1.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 76% • COL at home vs MIN: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-13	COL 4 - 3 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-11	MIN 2 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2026-05-09	MIN 5 - 1 COL	MIN	COL
2026-05-05	COL 5 - 2 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-03	COL 9 - 6 MIN	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	7	0	0.55
1	MIN	13	1	0.84
2	COL	11	1	0.74
2	MIN	16	0	1.07
3	COL	26	0	1.20
3	MIN	10	2	1.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.7 - 2.8