St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-01-20 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 61.8%

STL: 38.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.50

STL: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	30	24	6	80.0%	3.57	2	-2.43
STL	Jordan Binnington	35	30	5	85.7%	4.82	3	-0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • VGK at home vs STL: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	VGK 4 - 2 STL	VGK	VGK
2026-01-02	STL 4 - 3 VGK	STL	VGK
2025-11-15	STL 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-23	STL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	STL
2025-01-20	VGK 4 - 5 STL	STL	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	22	2	1.90
1	STL	19	0	1.15
2	VGK	14	0	0.90
2	STL	10	0	0.41
3	VGK	18	0	0.71
3	STL	8	0	0.32
4	VGK	2	0	0.33
4	STL	2	0	0.21
5	VGK	3	1	0.98
5	STL	3	2	1.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7