Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-01-20 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 41.4%

TBL: 58.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.09

TBL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	30	27	3	90.0%	2.67	0	-0.33
TBL	Jonas Johansson	28	23	5	82.1%	3.90	4	-1.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	0	0.99
1	TBL	12	0	0.49
2	TOR	15	1	0.78
2	TBL	18	0	0.83
3	TOR	13	3	2.13
3	TBL	18	0	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3