Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-01-20 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 41.9%

TBL: 58.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.67

TBL: 3.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	0	0.99
1	TBL	12	0	0.49
2	TOR	15	1	0.78
2	TBL	18	0	0.83
3	TOR	13	3	2.13
3	TBL	18	0	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.7 - 3.7