Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-01-21 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

MTL: 53.4%

TBL: 46.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.03

TBL: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 28% • MTL at home vs TBL: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	10	2	0.78
1	TBL	20	4	1.93
2	MTL	12	0	0.51
2	TBL	11	1	1.02
3	MTL	15	2	1.72
3	TBL	21	2	1.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1