Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-01-21 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 0 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

NYR: 53.3%

OTT: 46.7%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.37

OTT: 2.48

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 37%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	20	20	0	100.0%	0.92	0	0.92
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	29	24	5	82.8%	2.34	1	-2.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYR at home vs OTT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-23	NYR 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-01-14	NYR 4 - 8 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-04	OTT 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	OTT
2025-03-08	OTT 4 - 3 NYR	OTT	OTT
2025-01-21	NYR 5 - 0 OTT	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	13	0	0.72
1	OTT	7	0	0.11
2	NYR	14	1	0.80
2	OTT	13	0	0.37
3	NYR	10	0	0.83
3	OTT	14	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 0 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.4 - 2.5