Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-01-21 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

PHI: 65.8%

DET: 34.2%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.48

DET: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 41%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	28	27	1	96.4%	1.79	1	0.79
DET	Alex Lyon	26	24	2	92.3%	2.91	3	0.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs DET: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	DET 6 - 3 PHI	DET	PHI
2026-04-02	PHI 2 - 4 DET	DET	PHI
2026-03-28	DET 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-01-21	PHI 2 - 1 DET	PHI	PHI
2024-12-18	DET 6 - 4 PHI	DET	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	11	1	0.84
1	DET	10	0	0.26
2	PHI	9	1	0.83
2	DET	11	0	0.47
3	PHI	17	0	0.87
3	DET	16	1	0.80
4	PHI	5	1	0.37
4	DET	3	0	0.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7