Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-01-21 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 59.7%

WSH: 40.3%

Expected Goals

EDM: 2.88

WSH: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • EDM at home vs WSH: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-24	EDM 6 - 5 WSH	EDM	EDM
2025-11-19	WSH 7 - 4 EDM	WSH	WSH
2025-02-23	WSH 7 - 3 EDM	WSH	EDM
2025-01-21	EDM 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	EDM
2024-03-13	EDM 7 - 2 WSH	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	19	0	1.02
1	WSH	8	0	0.66
2	EDM	19	3	2.11
2	WSH	12	0	0.78
3	EDM	11	0	0.61
3	WSH	12	0	0.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.9 - 2.8