Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-01-22 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 59.4%

WPG: 40.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.17

WPG: 2.56

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 38%

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	25	22	3	88.0%	2.30	2	-0.70
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	27	25	2	92.6%	3.14	3	1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • COL at home vs WPG: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	COL 2 - 4 WPG	WPG	COL
2026-03-26	WPG 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-14	WPG 3 - 1 COL	WPG	COL
2025-12-19	COL 3 - 2 WPG	COL	COL
2025-01-22	COL 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	15	0	0.82
1	WPG	10	0	0.53
2	COL	16	2	1.29
2	WPG	13	1	1.03
3	COL	11	1	1.02
3	WPG	9	1	0.71
4	COL	0	0	0.00
4	WPG	1	0	0.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 4.2 - 2.6