Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-01-23 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 0 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 39.6%

OTT: 60.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.54

OTT: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 35%

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	29	29	0	100.0%	2.54	2	2.54
OTT	Anton Forsberg	26	24	2	92.3%	5.02	8	3.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • BOS at home vs OTT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	BOS 2 - 6 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-13	OTT 5 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-06	BOS 3 - 2 OTT	BOS	OTT
2025-10-27	OTT 7 - 2 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-03-13	OTT 6 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	17	0	0.94
1	OTT	19	1	1.06
2	BOS	19	6	2.82
2	OTT	16	1	0.81
3	BOS	10	2	1.26
3	OTT	15	0	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 0 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.5 - 3.0