Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-01-23 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 46.3%

MTL: 53.7%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.31

MTL: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • DET at home vs MTL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	MTL
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	MTL
2025-01-23	DET 4 - 2 MTL	DET	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	21	0	1.37
1	MTL	6	0	0.59
2	DET	17	4	2.04
2	MTL	15	0	0.72
3	DET	17	2	1.54
3	MTL	16	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1