Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-01-23 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 49.3%

MTL: 50.7%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.60

MTL: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 47%

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	29	27	2	93.1%	2.30	0	0.30
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	45	41	4	91.1%	4.94	6	0.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • DET at home vs MTL: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	MTL 1 - 0 DET	MTL	MTL
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	MTL
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	21	0	1.37
1	MTL	6	0	0.59
2	DET	17	4	2.04
2	MTL	15	0	0.72
3	DET	17	2	1.54
3	MTL	16	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1