Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-01-23 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 6 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 38.1%

PHI: 61.9%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.79

PHI: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	34	33	1	97.1%	3.86	5	2.86
PHI	Samuel Ersson	37	31	6	83.8%	4.57	6	-1.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NYR at home vs PHI: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	PHI 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2026-02-26	NYR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	NYR
2026-01-17	PHI 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2025-12-20	NYR 5 - 4 PHI	NYR	NYR
2025-04-09	NYR 5 - 8 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	18	2	1.46
1	PHI	13	1	0.79
2	NYR	12	1	0.92
2	PHI	25	2	1.95
3	NYR	18	3	2.19
3	PHI	12	2	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 6 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3