Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-01-23 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 50.2%

VGK: 49.8%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.17

VGK: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	31	27	4	87.1%	4.34	4	0.34
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	17	15	2	88.2%	2.55	1	0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • STL at home vs VGK: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	VGK 4 - 2 STL	VGK	VGK
2026-01-02	STL 4 - 3 VGK	STL	VGK
2025-11-15	STL 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-23	STL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	STL
2025-01-20	VGK 4 - 5 STL	STL	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	7	0	0.53
1	VGK	17	1	1.57
2	STL	15	0	1.11
2	VGK	14	1	0.99
3	STL	14	1	0.91
3	VGK	11	2	1.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1