Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-01-24 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

DAL: 67.3%

VGK: 32.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.06

VGK: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	21	18	3	85.7%	3.17	3	0.17
VGK	Adin Hill	27	23	4	85.2%	3.96	3	-0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • DAL at home vs VGK: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	DAL
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	10	1	1.13
1	VGK	14	0	0.46
2	DAL	24	1	1.98
2	VGK	8	1	0.74
3	DAL	9	1	0.85
3	VGK	18	2	1.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1