Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-01-24 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

DAL: 53.8%

VGK: 46.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.18

VGK: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • DAL at home vs VGK: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	10	1	1.13
1	VGK	14	0	0.46
2	DAL	24	1	1.98
2	VGK	8	1	0.74
3	DAL	9	1	0.85
3	VGK	18	2	1.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2