New Jersey Devils at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-01-25 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

MTL: 42.1%

NJD: 57.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.93

NJD: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	44	40	4	90.9%	4.43	4	0.43
NJD	Jake Allen	32	29	3	90.6%	3.35	0	0.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MTL at home vs NJD: 0-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	MTL 0 - 3 NJD	NJD	NJD
2026-04-04	NJD 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	NJD
2025-11-06	NJD 4 - 3 MTL	NJD	NJD
2025-02-08	MTL 0 - 4 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-25	MTL 3 - 4 NJD	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	9	0	0.55
1	NJD	15	3	1.44
2	MTL	21	0	1.78
2	NJD	22	1	1.82
3	MTL	13	0	0.67
3	NJD	21	0	0.79
4	MTL	3	0	0.36
4	NJD	3	0	0.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1