Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-01-25 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

OTT: 54.4%

TOR: 45.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.00

TOR: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • OTT at home vs TOR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	18	1	1.36
1	TOR	9	0	0.42
2	OTT	7	1	0.37
2	TOR	16	0	0.76
3	OTT	8	0	0.61
3	TOR	20	0	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0