Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-01-25 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 47.7%

TOR: 52.3%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.97

TOR: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	29	28	1	96.6%	2.19	0	1.19
TOR	Joseph Woll	23	21	2	91.3%	2.34	2	0.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • OTT at home vs TOR: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-03	TOR 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	TOR
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	18	1	1.36
1	TOR	9	0	0.42
2	OTT	7	1	0.37
2	TOR	16	0	0.76
3	OTT	8	0	0.61
3	TOR	20	0	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1