Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-01-25 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

DET: 55.9%

TBL: 44.1%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.98

TBL: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • DET at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	16	1	1.05
1	TBL	11	0	0.40
2	DET	16	0	1.05
2	TBL	15	3	1.19
3	DET	12	1	1.83
3	TBL	19	0	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2