Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-01-25 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 0 - 2 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 56.4%

DAL: 43.6%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.95

DAL: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 45%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	19	17	2	89.5%	2.19	1	0.19
DAL	Casey DeSmith	33	33	0	100.0%	3.06	0	3.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • STL at home vs DAL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	DAL 5 - 4 STL	DAL	DAL
2026-01-27	STL 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2026-01-23	DAL 3 - 2 STL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-18	STL 3 - 1 DAL	STL	STL
2025-03-02	DAL 6 - 3 STL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	17	0	0.76
1	DAL	15	0	1.17
2	STL	16	0	1.19
2	DAL	6	1	0.44
3	STL	15	0	1.12
3	DAL	6	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 0 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.9 - 2.8