Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-01-26 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

NYR: 35.6%

COL: 64.4%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.02

COL: 3.47

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	22	17	5	77.3%	2.76	2	-2.24
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	37	33	4	89.2%	3.90	3	-0.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYR at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-06	NYR 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-11-20	COL 6 - 3 NYR	COL	COL
2025-01-26	NYR 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-14	COL 3 - 2 NYR	COL	COL
2024-03-28	COL 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	15	1	1.28
1	COL	16	2	1.32
2	NYR	20	1	1.48
2	COL	16	0	0.98
3	NYR	20	1	1.14
3	COL	6	0	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5