Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-01-26 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 5 - 2 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

WPG: 61.7%

CGY: 38.3%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.61

CGY: 2.41

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Eric Comrie	22	20	2	90.9%	2.11	0	0.11
CGY	Dan Vladar	27	22	5	81.5%	2.95	2	-2.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs CGY: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-15	CGY 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2025-10-24	WPG 5 - 3 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-10-20	CGY 1 - 2 WPG	WPG	CGY
2025-01-26	WPG 5 - 2 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-01-18	WPG 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	16	0	0.34
1	CGY	6	0	0.48
2	WPG	13	1	0.88
2	CGY	16	0	0.93
3	WPG	17	1	1.72
3	CGY	15	0	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 5 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.6 - 2.4