Florida Panthers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-01-26 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 1 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

VGK: 64.0%

FLA: 36.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.24

FLA: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	34	33	1	97.1%	3.20	0	2.20
FLA	Spencer Knight	26	22	4	84.6%	3.91	3	-0.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs FLA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-10	VGK 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	VGK
2025-10-25	FLA 3 - 0 VGK	FLA	VGK
2025-01-26	VGK 4 - 1 FLA	VGK	VGK
2024-10-19	FLA 4 - 3 VGK	FLA	FLA
2024-01-04	VGK 1 - 4 FLA	FLA	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	0	0.82
1	FLA	19	0	0.94
2	VGK	15	0	0.85
2	FLA	18	0	0.71
3	VGK	19	3	2.24
3	FLA	20	0	1.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 1 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7