New Jersey Devils at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-01-27 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 2 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

PHI: 68.2%

NJD: 31.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.36

NJD: 2.58

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	33	31	2	93.9%	2.49	3	0.49
NJD	Jake Allen	26	22	4	84.6%	2.79	2	-1.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • PHI at home vs NJD: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	NJD 1 - 5 PHI	PHI	NJD
2025-11-29	NJD 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	NJD
2025-11-22	PHI 6 - 3 NJD	PHI	PHI
2025-03-09	PHI 1 - 3 NJD	NJD	PHI
2025-01-29	NJD 5 - 0 PHI	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	10	1	0.71
1	NJD	9	1	0.55
2	PHI	13	0	0.77
2	NJD	16	2	1.23
3	PHI	8	1	1.31
3	NJD	14	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 2 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.4 - 2.6