Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-01-28 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 7 - 2 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

BUF: 59.1%

BOS: 40.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.28

BOS: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	27	25	2	92.6%	3.08	2	1.08
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	33	26	7	78.8%	3.01	1	-3.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • BUF at home vs BOS: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.68
1	BOS	9	0	0.57
2	BUF	14	0	0.73
2	BOS	26	2	1.49
3	BUF	17	1	1.60
3	BOS	14	0	1.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 7 - 2 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8