Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-01-28 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

MTL: 46.1%

WPG: 53.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.68

WPG: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	24	20	4	83.3%	3.65	2	-0.35
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	25	24	1	96.0%	2.52	1	1.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	WPG 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	WPG
2025-12-03	MTL 3 - 2 WPG	MTL	MTL
2025-01-28	MTL 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-14	WPG 4 - 2 MTL	WPG	WPG
2023-12-18	WPG 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	0	0.89
1	WPG	12	0	0.80
2	MTL	7	0	0.57
2	WPG	23	1	1.36
3	MTL	15	1	1.05
3	WPG	9	1	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 2.7 - 3.2