Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-01-28 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 45.1%

COL: 54.9%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.10

COL: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs COL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-04	NYI 6 - 3 COL	NYI	NYI
2025-11-16	COL 4 - 1 NYI	COL	COL
2025-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 COL	NYI	COL
2024-10-14	COL 2 - 6 NYI	NYI	COL
2024-01-02	COL 5 - 4 NYI	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	16	1	1.04
1	COL	22	1	1.49
2	NYI	11	1	0.71
2	COL	22	0	1.38
3	NYI	13	1	1.56
3	COL	11	0	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0