Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-01-28 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 61.9%

DAL: 38.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.35

DAL: 2.53

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • VGK at home vs DAL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	15	1	1.04
1	DAL	11	1	0.96
2	VGK	13	0	0.59
2	DAL	19	1	1.23
3	VGK	12	0	0.39
3	DAL	14	1	1.20
4	VGK	1	0	0.15
4	DAL	1	1	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.4 - 2.5