Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-01-29 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 52.8%

MIN: 47.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.58

MIN: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs MIN: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	MIN 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	MIN
2026-01-19	TOR 3 - 6 MIN	MIN	MIN
2025-01-29	TOR 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	TOR
2024-11-03	MIN 2 - 1 TOR	MIN	MIN
2023-11-19	MIN 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	0.57
1	MIN	11	0	0.79
2	TOR	19	1	1.03
2	MIN	16	0	0.63
3	TOR	16	0	0.79
3	MIN	10	2	1.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1