Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-01-29 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 Minnesota Wild
🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 62.9%
MIN: 37.1%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.55
MIN: 3.01
Total Goals
Median: 7.2
Over 5.5: 75%
Over 6.5: 63%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
MIN
Filip Gustavsson - 28-15-6 | 0.903 SV% | 2.69 GAA
| Stat | TOR | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.912 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.836 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.828 | 0.900 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.47 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs MIN: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | MIN 2 - 4 TOR | TOR | MIN |
| 2026-01-19 | TOR 3 - 6 MIN | MIN | MIN |
| 2025-01-29 | TOR 1 - 3 MIN | MIN | TOR |
| 2024-11-03 | MIN 2 - 1 TOR | MIN | MIN |
| 2023-11-19 | MIN 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:07 | MIN | Goal |
| 1 | 15:35 | MIN | Goal |
| 3 | 08:16 | MIN | Goal |
| 3 | 19:45 | MIN | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 Minnesota Wild
Expected: 3.5 - 3.0
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