Pittsburgh Penguins at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions
2025-01-29 • Delta Center
Utah Hockey Club 2 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
UTA: 60.9%
PIT: 39.1%
Expected Goals
UTA: 3.28
PIT: 2.96
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
UTA
Karel Vejmelka - 38-20-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | UTA | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.878 | 0.886 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.795 | 0.885 |
| GAA | 2.68 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • UTA at home vs PIT: 0-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | UTA 3 - 4 PIT | PIT | UTA |
| 2025-12-14 | PIT 4 - 5 UTA | UTA | UTA |
| 2025-01-29 | UTA 2 - 3 PIT | PIT | UTA |
| 2024-11-23 | PIT 1 - 6 UTA | UTA | UTA |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:51 | UTA | Goal |
| 2 | 06:40 | UTA | Goal |
| 2 | 08:36 | UTA | Goal |
| 3 | 06:17 | UTA | Goal |
| 4 | 03:54 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Utah Hockey Club 2 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.3 - 3.0
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