Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-01-30 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

OTT: 57.9%

WSH: 42.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 5.00

WSH: 3.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • OTT at home vs WSH: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	OTT
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	11	0	0.56
1	WSH	11	0	0.55
2	OTT	19	2	1.40
2	WSH	16	1	1.19
3	OTT	10	0	0.83
3	WSH	15	1	1.12
4	OTT	2	0	0.28
4	WSH	2	0	0.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 8.7

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 5.0 - 3.7