Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-01-30 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 63.6%

DET: 36.4%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.36

DET: 2.66

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 38%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	37	33	4	89.2%	6.33	9	2.33
DET	Alex Lyon	48	46	2	95.8%	5.74	5	3.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • EDM at home vs DET: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	EDM 4 - 1 DET	EDM	EDM
2025-10-19	DET 4 - 2 EDM	DET	EDM
2025-01-30	EDM 2 - 3 DET	DET	EDM
2024-10-27	DET 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-02-13	EDM 8 - 4 DET	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	21	2	2.01
1	DET	11	1	1.00
2	EDM	17	1	1.19
2	DET	18	2	1.24
3	EDM	17	1	1.40
3	DET	14	4	1.73
4	EDM	7	1	1.02
4	DET	6	0	0.45
5	EDM	2	0	0.12
5	DET	2	2	1.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7