New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-02-01 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 60.5%

NYI: 39.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.39

NYI: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs NYI: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	NYI 3 - 2 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-12-06	TBL 0 - 2 NYI	NYI	TBL
2025-12-02	NYI 2 - 1 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-04-01	NYI 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-29	TBL 5 - 3 NYI	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	18	0	0.95
1	NYI	15	1	0.94
2	TBL	20	0	1.61
2	NYI	21	1	1.39
3	TBL	12	0	0.77
3	NYI	8	0	0.38
4	TBL	0	0	0.00
4	NYI	1	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7