Winnipeg Jets at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-02-01 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 4 - 5 Winnipeg Jets
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 61.2%
WPG: 38.8%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.51
WPG: 3.00
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 48%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | WSH | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.857 | 0.960 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • WSH at home vs WPG: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | WPG 5 - 1 WSH | WPG | WPG |
| 2025-11-26 | WSH 4 - 3 WPG | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-03-25 | WPG 3 - 2 WSH | WPG | WPG |
| 2025-02-01 | WSH 4 - 5 WPG | WPG | WSH |
| 2024-03-24 | WSH 3 - 0 WPG | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:41 | WPG | Goal |
| 1 | 09:13 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 04:54 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 04:03 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 01:12 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 12:21 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 07:26 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 01:10 | WPG | Goal |
| 4 | 01:57 | WPG | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 4 - 5 Winnipeg Jets
Expected: 3.5 - 3.0