Winnipeg Jets at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-02-01 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 57.7%

WPG: 42.3%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.29

WPG: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	30	25	5	83.3%	3.22	5	-1.78
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	29	25	4	86.2%	2.11	0	-1.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	WPG 5 - 1 WSH	WPG	WSH
2025-11-26	WSH 4 - 3 WPG	WSH	WSH
2025-03-25	WPG 3 - 2 WSH	WPG	WPG
2025-02-01	WSH 4 - 5 WPG	WPG	WSH
2024-03-24	WSH 3 - 0 WPG	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	7	0	0.25
1	WPG	22	2	1.49
2	WSH	13	0	0.94
2	WPG	10	2	1.09
3	WSH	19	0	0.83
3	WPG	11	0	0.32
4	WSH	1	0	0.10
4	WPG	3	1	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2