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Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-02-01 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability
EDM: 65.5%
TOR: 34.5%
Expected Goals
EDM: 3.56
TOR: 2.53
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM
Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
StatEDMTOR
Season SV%0.9060.914
Last 5 SV%0.8370.863
SV% vs Opponent0.836—
GAA2.732.74
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs TOR: 1-2
DateScoreWinnerModel Pick
2026-02-03EDM 2 - 5 TORTOREDM
2025-12-13TOR 3 - 6 EDMEDMEDM
2025-02-01EDM 3 - 4 TORTOREDM
2024-11-16TOR 4 - 3 EDMTOREDM
2024-03-23TOR 6 - 3 EDMTORTOR

⚡ In-Game Win Probability

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0:00 20:00 40:00 60:00 In-Game Win Probability Home Win Probability Game Time (minutes)

Goals

PeriodTimeTeamScorer
106:32TORGoal
109:08TORGoal
112:50TORGoal
211:27TORGoal
300:18TORGoal
306:04TORGoal
311:33TORGoal

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 65.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.6 - 2.5