Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-02-01 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 64.5%

TOR: 35.5%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.29

TOR: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	28	24	4	85.7%	2.41	2	-1.59
TOR	Joseph Woll	48	45	3	93.8%	4.44	3	1.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-03	EDM 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	EDM
2025-12-13	TOR 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-02-01	EDM 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	EDM
2024-11-16	TOR 4 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM
2024-03-23	TOR 6 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	18	1	1.09
1	TOR	15	2	1.37
2	EDM	23	0	1.58
2	TOR	8	0	0.60
3	EDM	24	2	1.77
3	TOR	11	0	0.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8