Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-02-01 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 53.0%

DET: 47.0%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.00

DET: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 38%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	25	22	3	88.0%	3.34	2	0.34
DET	Cam Talbot	34	33	1	97.1%	2.73	0	1.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs DET: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DET 5 - 2 CGY	DET	DET
2025-12-10	CGY 3 - 4 DET	DET	CGY
2025-02-01	CGY 1 - 3 DET	DET	CGY
2024-11-27	DET 2 - 1 CGY	DET	DET
2024-02-17	CGY 0 - 5 DET	DET	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	16	0	0.80
1	DET	13	0	0.91
2	CGY	25	0	1.25
2	DET	10	0	0.30
3	CGY	14	0	0.67
3	DET	12	2	2.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1