New Jersey Devils at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-02-02 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 45.7%

NJD: 54.3%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.84

NJD: 3.54

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 39%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	24	21	3	87.5%	3.23	1	0.23
NJD	Jake Allen	34	30	4	88.2%	3.38	2	-0.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • BUF at home vs NJD: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	NJD 1 - 2 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-12-21	NJD 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-11-28	BUF 0 - 5 NJD	NJD	BUF
2025-02-02	BUF 4 - 3 NJD	BUF	NJD
2024-10-05	NJD 3 - 1 BUF	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	19	1	1.36
1	NJD	18	0	0.93
2	BUF	26	1	1.80
2	NJD	17	1	1.78
3	BUF	8	0	0.22
3	NJD	9	0	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 2.8 - 3.5