Montreal Canadiens at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-02-02 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 39.9%

MTL: 60.1%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.79

MTL: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	23	21	2	91.3%	2.19	0	0.19
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	22	19	3	86.4%	1.87	0	-1.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ANA at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	MTL 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	MTL
2026-03-06	ANA 6 - 5 MTL	ANA	ANA
2025-02-02	ANA 3 - 2 MTL	ANA	MTL
2024-12-09	MTL 3 - 2 ANA	MTL	MTL
2024-02-13	MTL 5 - 0 ANA	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	ANA	7	0.42
1	MTL	14	1.14
2	ANA	13	0.84
2	MTL	7	0.52
3	ANA	14	0.60
3	MTL	14	0.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 2.8 - 3.4