Columbus Blue Jackets at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-02-02 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 3 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

DAL: 65.4%

CBJ: 34.6%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.70

CBJ: 2.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 45%

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	30	27	3	90.0%	4.07	4	1.07
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	39	34	5	87.2%	4.18	5	-0.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs CBJ: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	CBJ 1 - 0 DAL	CBJ	DAL
2025-10-21	DAL 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	DAL
2025-02-25	CBJ 6 - 4 DAL	CBJ	DAL
2025-02-02	DAL 5 - 3 CBJ	DAL	DAL
2023-11-09	CBJ 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	2	1.34
1	CBJ	10	0	0.98
2	DAL	23	3	1.91
2	CBJ	17	1	1.57
3	DAL	17	0	0.93
3	CBJ	22	3	1.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 3 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.7 - 2.5