Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-02-04 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

BUF: 57.8%

CBJ: 42.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.28

CBJ: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	James Reimer	29	27	2	93.1%	1.81	0	-0.19
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	21	18	3	85.7%	2.56	1	-0.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BUF at home vs CBJ: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	BUF 5 - 0 CBJ	BUF	BUF
2026-01-03	CBJ 5 - 1 BUF	CBJ	BUF
2025-10-28	BUF 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	BUF
2025-04-10	CBJ 3 - 2 BUF	CBJ	BUF
2025-02-04	BUF 3 - 2 CBJ	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.62
1	CBJ	18	0	0.54
2	BUF	19	0	1.15
2	CBJ	11	0	0.52
3	BUF	4	1	0.78
3	CBJ	13	0	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9