Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-02-04 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 47.1%

FLA: 52.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.02

FLA: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	33	30	3	90.9%	3.70	2	0.70
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	26	20	6	76.9%	3.15	4	-2.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs FLA: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WSH 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	WSH
2025-12-29	FLA 5 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-11-13	FLA 6 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-03-22	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH
2025-02-04	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	9	1	0.46
1	FLA	16	1	1.24
2	WSH	14	0	0.90
2	FLA	9	0	0.59
3	WSH	8	3	1.78
3	FLA	26	1	1.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2