Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-02-04 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Florida Panthers
🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 40.9%
FLA: 59.1%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.10
FLA: 3.14
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 68%
Over 6.5: 54%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
FLA
Sergei Bobrovsky - 27-23-1 | 0.877 SV% | 3.07 GAA
| Stat | WSH | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.857 | 0.889 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.80 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs FLA: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | WSH 2 - 5 FLA | FLA | WSH |
| 2025-12-29 | FLA 5 - 3 WSH | FLA | FLA |
| 2025-11-13 | FLA 6 - 3 WSH | FLA | FLA |
| 2025-03-22 | WSH 6 - 3 FLA | WSH | FLA |
| 2025-02-04 | WSH 6 - 3 FLA | WSH | FLA |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:08 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 19:30 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 01:15 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 04:14 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 02:19 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 06:10 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 07:46 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 18:21 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 19:59 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Florida Panthers
Expected: 3.1 - 3.1
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