Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-02-04 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (63% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 36.9%

VGK: 63.1%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.73

VGK: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 45%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	34	33	1	97.1%	3.01	2	2.01
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	14	12	2	85.7%	1.30	0	-0.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYI at home vs VGK: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	NYI 5 - 4 VGK	NYI	NYI
2025-11-13	VGK 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2025-02-04	NYI 2 - 1 VGK	NYI	VGK
2025-01-09	VGK 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2024-01-23	NYI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	10	0	0.36
1	VGK	9	0	0.36
2	NYI	7	0	0.53
2	VGK	19	0	0.73
3	NYI	10	0	0.41
3	VGK	20	2	1.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.7 - 2.6