Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-02-04 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 46.8%

VGK: 53.2%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.80

VGK: 3.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NYI at home vs VGK: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	NYI 5 - 4 VGK	NYI	NYI
2025-11-13	VGK 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2025-02-04	NYI 2 - 1 VGK	NYI	VGK
2025-01-09	VGK 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2024-01-23	NYI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	10	0	0.36
1	VGK	9	0	0.36
2	NYI	7	0	0.53
2	VGK	19	0	0.73
3	NYI	10	0	0.41
3	VGK	20	2	1.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.8 - 3.5