Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2025-02-04 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 54.3%
TOR: 45.7%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.08
TOR: 2.90
Total Goals
Median: 5.6
Over 5.5: 51%
Over 6.5: 35%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 23-29-3 | 0.899 SV% | 3.01 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | CGY | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.879 | 0.933 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs TOR: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | CGY 2 - 4 TOR | TOR | CGY |
| 2025-10-28 | TOR 4 - 3 CGY | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-03-17 | TOR 6 - 2 CGY | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-02-04 | CGY 3 - 6 TOR | TOR | CGY |
| 2024-01-18 | CGY 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:16 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 02:36 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 03:17 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 05:58 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 12:28 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 18:18 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 05:44 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 06:02 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:16 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.1 - 2.9
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