Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-02-04 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

CGY: 48.9%

TOR: 51.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.02

TOR: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 41%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	30	24	6	80.0%	6.06	5	0.06
TOR	Joseph Woll	26	23	3	88.5%	2.61	1	-0.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs TOR: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	CGY 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	CGY
2025-10-28	TOR 4 - 3 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-03-17	TOR 6 - 2 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-02-04	CGY 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-01-18	CGY 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	17	0	1.26
1	TOR	15	1	1.17
2	CGY	9	0	0.52
2	TOR	17	0	1.46
3	CGY	12	1	0.84
3	TOR	12	4	3.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1