Colorado Avalanche at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-02-04 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 0 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 44.1%

COL: 55.9%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.93

COL: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	25	25	0	100.0%	2.60	0	2.60
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	31	28	3	90.3%	4.00	5	1.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • VAN at home vs COL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-01	COL 6 - 8 VAN	VAN	COL
2025-12-02	COL 3 - 1 VAN	COL	COL
2025-11-09	VAN 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-04-10	COL 1 - 4 VAN	VAN	COL
2025-02-04	VAN 3 - 0 COL	VAN	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	11	0	0.60
1	COL	20	0	1.10
2	VAN	17	2	1.36
2	COL	18	0	1.13
3	VAN	17	3	2.05
3	COL	7	0	0.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 0 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4