Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-02-06 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

TBL: 53.8%

OTT: 46.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.30

OTT: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	27	1	96.4%	2.09	0	1.09
OTT	Anton Forsberg	31	26	5	83.9%	3.50	2	-1.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TBL at home vs OTT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	TBL
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	21	1	1.39
1	OTT	9	0	0.27
2	TBL	16	0	0.88
2	OTT	20	0	0.99
3	TBL	12	1	1.24
3	OTT	17	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0