Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-02-06 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

TBL: 53.2%

OTT: 46.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.65

OTT: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 38%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TBL at home vs OTT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	OTT
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	21	1	1.39
1	OTT	9	0	0.27
2	TBL	16	0	0.88
2	OTT	20	0	0.99
3	TBL	12	1	1.24
3	OTT	17	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.7 - 3.2