Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-02-06 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 67.4%

WSH: 32.6%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.52

WSH: 2.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	18	14	4	77.8%	1.80	1	-2.20
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	22	19	3	86.4%	3.53	2	0.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PHI at home vs WSH: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	12	1	1.08
1	WSH	10	0	0.85
2	PHI	12	0	0.75
2	WSH	7	0	0.40
3	PHI	14	1	1.70
3	WSH	9	1	0.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.5 - 2.4